Federal Reserve Bank: "Unemployment will remain high two more years"

The Associated Press (via the Plain Dealer) reports that the Fed expects unemployment to remain high for two more years, though "a sizable minority" thinks that it will take five to six more years for the economy and the job market to return to normal.

The Fed said the unemployment rate this year could hover between 9.5 percent and 9.7 percent and between 8.2 percent and 8.5 percent next year. By 2012, the rate will range between 6.6 percent and 7.5 percent, it predicted.

Those forecasts are little changed from projections the Fed released in late November. But they suggest unemployment will remain elevated heading into this year's congressional elections and the presidential election in 2012. A more normal unemployment rate would be between 5.5 percent and 6 percent.

Ohio's rate, of course, is higher (officially 10.9% in December), and it is well known that the definition of "unemployment" tends to understate the rate. Unemployment is defined by the Ohio Department of Job & Family Services as representing "persons who were not employed during the reference week, but who were actively seeking work, waiting to be called back to a job from which laid off, or waiting to report within 30 days to a new payroll job." It does not include those who have given up or are doing casual labor. Unemployment rate is defined as "unemployment as a percentage of the civilian labor force. "

So, there you have it: It's 1980-85 all over again, until 2012, maybe even into 2016.

And people wonder why I'm a secessionist...